2020


TOP 6 DATES TO PICK

1. May 9
2. April 20
3. April 28
4. May 10
5. April 21
6. April 27


TOP 6 DATES TO AVOID

1. April 30
2. May 1
3. April 18
4. April 20
5. April 26
6. May 6


COUCH POTATO TECHNIQUES

The easiest technique to choose an ice-out date is to open a calendar to April/May and throw a dart. However, if you want to improve your chances of winning you might review the ice-out facts and throw a dart at a smaller number of dates. Or you can review the same ice-out data and look at the dates to pick/avoid (shown above) and choose a date based on the theory that the actual ice-out percentages will, over time, match the normal (Bell) curve. This is happening with each passing year but it's certainly not foolproof for any given year, although the above dates improve your chances over the dart technique. Are you wondering why May 9 and 10th are in the top picks?

Answer: Over 10% of the ice-outs have occurred after May 10th. There has not been an ice out on May 9th and May 10th. This creates a hole in the distribution. There should be 2-3 "ice-outs" on these dates to fill in the hole and match the Bell curve shape.


ICE CHATTER

The decade of the 2010's is over. The ice-out for this decade averaged April 26th. There were two really early April ice outs in 2010 and 2012 that drove down the average earlier than the previous decade by about 2.5 days. The average for this decade would have been much lower than the overall average of April 29th but in 2013 the ice out was very late..May 13th. We have 101 years of ice out data and the overall average continues to be April 29th. However, for the past 20 years the average ice out has been April 27th. Since there are 101 years of ice out information it will take several years of early ice outs to move the overall average. See 'ice out facts' for ice out data by decade.

The National Climatic Data Center and international standards require that climate "normal" (averages) be based on 30 year records. After the 2020 ice out date is confirmed the new 'normal' will be calculated so look for that next year.

March weather continues to be the best predictor of early, normal, or late ice outs. Watch it and compare it to previous supplied weather data and make your prediction.

Good luck!!


© Iceman - January 2020