2019


TOP 6 DATES TO PICK

1. May 9
2. April 23
3. April 28
4. April 27
5. May 10
6. April 21


TOP 6 DATES TO AVOID

1. April 30
2. May 2
3. April 18
4. April 20
5. April 26
6. May 6


COUCH POTATO TECHNIQUES

The easiest technique to choose an ice-out date is to open a calendar to April/May and throw a dart. However, if you want to improve your chances of winning you might review the ice-out facts and throw a dart at a smaller number of dates. Or you can review the same ice-out data and look at the dates to pick/avoid (shown above) and choose a date based on the theory that the actual ice-out percentages will, over time, match the normal (Bell) curve. This is happening with each passing year but it's certainly not foolproof for any given year, although the above dates improve your chances over the dart technique. Are you wondering why May 9 and 10th are in the top picks?

Answer: Over 10% of the ice-outs have occurred after May 10th. There has not been an ice out on May 9th and May 10th. This creates a hole in the distribution. There should be 2-3 "ice-outs" on these dates to fill in the hole and match the Bell curve shape.


ICE CHATTER

I have not kept track of how the best/worst dates from year to year faired but I did notice that the top best pick for the 2018 ice-out was May 8th and the ice went out on that date!!

We now have 100 years of ice-out data in the database. Technically the average ice out is April 28th but for all practically purposes it is April 29th. (see the facts page). The DNR rounds up the number and considers April 29th as the average ice out date and we can accept that date. The 100 year weather averages for the months of December to May that drive the April 29th date are shown below in this order: month, average high temp, average low temp. and total snowfall. The yearly snowfall is higher than what is shown because it does not show snowfalls in October or November. These months do not have an influence on the ice out date so they are not part of the database. Recall, that the weather in March is the most significant driver of the ice out date.

100 year temperature high, low averages in F and the snowfall in inches by month:
December-20.54,0.89,11.95
January-15.94,-6.62,12.94
February-21.90,-3.199.42
March-34.27,10.15,10.33
April-49.44,25.20,6.09
May-58.84,32.74,0.51

If the weather conditions in 2019 are similar to the above averages then it is a pretty good bet that the ice out will be on April 29th.

Good Luck!


© Iceman - January 2019