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TOP 6 DATES TO PICK  1. May 92. April 283. April 244. April 235. May 106. April 21 |
TOP 6 DATES TO AVOID 1. May 12. April 303. April 204. April 185. May 66. May 12 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The easiest technique to choose an ice-out date is to open a calendar to April/May and throw a dart. However, if you want to improve your chances of winning you might review the ice-out facts and throw a dart at a smaller number of dates. Or you can review the same ice-out data and look at the dates to pick/avoid (shown above) and choose a date based on the theory that the actual ice-out percentages will, over time, match the normal (Bell) curve. This is happening with each passing year but it's certainly not foolproof for any given year, although the above dates improve your chances over the dart technique. Are you wondering why May 8, 9 and 10th are in the top picks? Answer: Over 10% of the ice-outs have occurred after May 10th. There is only 1 ice-out date for May 8,9,10th combined, around 1%. This creates a hole in the distribution. There should be 3-4 "ice-outs" on these dates to fill in the hole and match the Bell curve shape. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The 2010-2011 winter temperatures were a few degrees colder compared to the overall winter averages and the snowfall was approximately 33 percent more than the winter averages. As reported here before the snowfall amounts are not the dominate factor in determining ice-out. The temperatures in March and April are the most significant factors. The cooler than normal temperatures during these months plus the fact that the winter was cooler and with the snowfall amounts all helped to push the ice-out to May 1st and push the overall ice-out back to April 29th.
In order to predict the ice out one has to have some knowledge base on what the temperatures are going to be in March and April. I am concentrating on weather models that predict temperatures, and yes, snowfall amounts, for these months. First stop---The Farmer's Almanac! Hopefully, I'll have some information for you next year on this approach. Also, next year I/ll compare the temperatures and snowfall totals which caused the ice to go out late in May to the overall winter averages. How bad of a winter must be endured to cause the ice to out on May 8th or later? If you can't wait, you can receive a digital copy of the Ice-out data base and you can do the comparison. The data base is available from the webmaster Meanwhile, good luck in predicting the ice-out for 2012 and have a good winter © Iceman - January 2012 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||