TOP 6 DATES TO PICK
2. April 23
3. April 28
4. April 27
5. May 9
6. April 21
TOP 6 DATES TO AVOID
2. May 1
3. April 18
4. April 20
5. April 25
6. May 6
The easiest technique to choose an ice-out date is to open a calendar to April/May and throw a dart. However, if you want to improve your chances of winning you might review the ice-out facts and throw a dart at a smaller number of dates. Or you can review the same ice-out data and look at the dates to pick/avoid (shown above) and choose a date based on the theory that the actual ice-out percentages will, over time, match the normal (Bell) curve. This is happening with each passing year but it's certainly not foolproof for any given year, although the above dates improve your chances over the dart technique. Are you wondering why May 8, 9 and 10th are in the top picks?
Answer: Over 10% of the ice-outs have occurred after May 10th. There is only 1 ice-out date for May 8,9,10th combined, around 1%. This creates a hole in the distribution. There should be 3-4 "ice-outs" on these dates to fill in the hole and match the Bell curve shape.
After 99 years of ice out data, the ice finally went out on tax day — April 15th. This resulted in a small change in the ice out average since it is an early ice out. Note the Facts screen for the current data. After rounding, the average ice out remains at April 29th even with this early ice out date. It will take several early ice outs to move the average since the denominator is so large - 99 years!
When the 2018 ice out happens my database will have 100 years of data! Regular readers of this chat have been provided with several correlations between the ice out date and the weather conditions by month. Hopefully they have helped you win the contest. The last correlations were done last year - 2017. The ice out in 2018, which will be the 100th year of ice out dates and average monthly weather conditions, will have little impact on last year's correlation information.
So what should the Iceman do to celebrate 100 years of ice out data? Rather than provide another correlation set I have been thinking I will provide you with the average monthly temperatures and snowfalls for 100 years. What is the snowiest month? What is the highest ever average temperature for the coldest month and what is the lowest ever average temperature for this same month and in what years did this happen? Old timers may recall some of the extreme weather conditions that have happen during 10 decades. Would you enjoy this information?
Well, I have 12 months to come up with something different to chat about after 100 years of ice out data. Send the webmaster any requests and he will forward and I will see what I can do to reply to the request.
Meanwhile, good luck in winning the ice out contest for the 100th year of recorded ice out dates!
© Iceman - January 2018